Market Watch

A wise man once said the secret to happiness is low expectations. If you don’t succumb to outstanding and outlandish anticipation, you will be more easily pleased more often and thus happier, or so the theory goes. Since I love you all so much, I’m here to tailor your expectations for you!

With the deadline rapidly approaching, it’s easy to get swept up in the TSN manufactured holiday, as Maple Leafs Coach Ron Wilson would call it. We north of the 49th have made what is a non-event in other sports into an all-out frenzy. As you may have heard, the Ottawa Senators are playing the role of sellers for the first time in over a decade and many fans have expectations higher than former BNL front man Stephen Page with a stack of rolled up Canadian $50s.

Many fans are hoping the deadline will allow management to completely remake the team and address some of the massive holes on the roster. However, this lofty optimism is likely unrealistic. Teams don’t usually make blockbuster “hockey trades” (that is, talent for talent deals that shuffle the proverbial deck of a team’s roster in a major way) at the deadline, but rather reserve that behaviour for the period in the between the draft and the start of unrestricted free agency. With that in mind, here is an assessment of the market that exists for some of the home team’s players who may be on the move.

BREAKING NEWS: TSN.ca is reporting that Sens GM Bryan Murray is spending Tuesday negotiating with the agents for Neil and Kuba and is hoping to get them signed to new deals. The article states Kuba’s agent has denied he is seeking at least $4.5mil per annum. Personally, I don’t think retaining either one makes much sense, but I don’t get to listen in on trade negotiations, so we’ll assume Bryan knows best.

All statistics in brackets are from the season the trade was made up to the day the player was traded.

Filip Kuba

Well, well, well. Turns out the prediction I made months ago is coming to fruition. Take that, detractors. As I said then, this team can’t afford to lose it’s #1 defender for the third time in four seasons. Kuba has a no-trade clause in his deal, but has communicated through his agent that he will waive it if asked. If the two sides can't get an extension done in the next 12 hours or so, he is as good as gone.

Some similar talents that have been dealt and the return:

Mar. 2nd 2009
- To New Jersey: D Niclas Havelid (63GP, 2G, 13A, +4) and F Myles Stoesz (207th Overall in 2005)
- To Atlanta: D Anssi Salmela (17GP, 3A, +1, 33 SOG)

Feb 17th 2009
- To Montreal: D Mathieu Schneider (44GP, 4G, 11A, 50PIM) and Conditional Pick in 2009.
- To Atlanta: 2nd Round Pick in 2009, 3rd Round Pick 2010.

Feb. 27th 2008
- To Anaheim: D Marc-Andre Bergeron (44GP, 9G, 9A, -14.)
- To NY Islanders: 3rd Round Pick in 2008.

- To Colorado: D Russlan Salei (65GP, 3G, 20A, -5.)
- To Florida: D Karlis Skrastins (43GP, 1G, 3A, -2) and a 3rd Round Pick in 2008.

- To Detroit: D Brad Stuart (63GP, 5G, 16A, -16.)
- To Los Angeles: 2008 2nd Round Pick, 2009 4th Round Pick

Havelid is the defenceman most comparable to Kuba’s this year, but Pierre McGuire said on the Team 1200 this morning that the feeling is Atlanta didn’t get “full value” for the Olympic Gold Medalist. Rumours are circulating that Murray is working to bring a first-round pick back this deadline, and Kuba represents his best chance of achieving that. However, unless someone desperately covets Kuba, a return similar to what LA got for Stuart and Florida for Salei seems more likely. Expect a 2nd rounder and either a low pairing defenceman/bottom six forward, a mid level prospect, or another pick.

Chris Neil

Neil is rumoured to be on the move, as his pay demands ($2.5mil/yr) are roughly $1mil more than Bryan Murray is willing to pay. Chris Neil has always been good in the community, loyal to this franchise, and appreciative of the fans’ affections. He does his job, but his offense has all but disappeared (He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 44 games this year.) While he has always been a stand up guy, it seems like it’s time for both sides to move on.

Comparables for Neil are:

Jan 7th 2009
- To Toronto: W Brad May (20GP, 0G, 5A, 28PIM.)
- To Anaheim: Conditional 6th Round Pick in 2010 in 2009.

Feb 26th 2008
- To Washington: W Matt Cooke (61GP, 7G, 9A, 64PIM.)
- To Vancouver: W Matt Pettinger (56GP, 2G, 5A, -11)

- To Florida: D/F Wade Belak (30GP, 1A, 66PIM)
- To Toronto: 5th Round Pick in 2008.

- To Minnesota: W Chris Simon (28GP, 1G, 2A, 43PIM)
- To NY Islanders: 6th Round Pick in 2008

Some fans may not like having Neil grouped in with Belak and Simon, but given his offensive production in recent months, that’s where he is. Granted Neil is a better skater than those two, but it’s hard to imagine his value being radically higher. Pat uncle Bryan on the back if he gets anything more than a late-round pick or a 4th liner for Neil.

Antoine Vermette

TSN and the Ottawa Sun are both reporting the possibility of Antoine Vermette being moved to the Columbus Blue Jackets, with Pascale Leclaire coming up from the Buckeye state in return. To me, this represents a huge risk. Murray would be adding salary in this deal, as Leclaire has two years left on his contract at a Gerber-esque $3.8M per. With so many free agent goaltenders of roughly the same calibre (Tim Thomas, Nikolai Khabibulin, and Marty Biron) it may make more sense for Murray to wait until the summer. Murray said last week he hold off until golf season to figure out his goaltending.

A few comparables in setting the market for Vermette:

Feb 7th, 2009
- To Carolina: W Jussi Jokinen (57GP, 7G, 14A)
- To Tampa Bay: D Wade Brookbank, D Josef Melichar, and a 4th Round pick.

Nov 24th 2008
- To Toronto: W Lee Stempniak (14GP, 3G, 10A, -3)
- To St. Louis: C Alex Steen (20GP, 2G, 2A, 31 SOG) and D Carlo Colaiacovo (10GP, 1A, -2, 9 SOG)

Feb 26th 2008
– To Washington: C/D Sergei Fedorov (50 GP, 9G, 19 A.)
– To Columbus: D Ted Ruth (47th Overall in 2007.)

– To Carolina: W Tuomo Ruutu (60GP, 6G, 15A.)
– To Chicago: W Andrew Ladd (43GP, 9G, 9A)

It is a little tricky to set the market for Vermette, but these may be the best comparables from the last two seasons. Vermette could realistically fetch one of the following: a mid-level prospect, a mediocre draft pick, a bottom three defenceman, or some spare parts. Stempniak may be the best comparison in terms of overall ability, but unless Murray is able to make a flat out “hockey trade,” that kind of return is unlikely. Adding to the weakness of that comparison is the fact that the deal was made in November, months removed from the distinct climate of the trade deadline. Given his modest $2.76 cap-hit and (frustratingly untapped) potential, they hang on to him unless they can find a cheaper substitute.

Christoph Schubert

Chrtistoph “I’m too picky to play forward in order to stay in the NHL” Schubert will definitely be moved if BM the GM can find a taker. He doesn’t play most nights, is part of the log-jam of defenders that necessitated the demotion of Brian Lee to the AHL, and has become more high-maintenance than Jennifer Lopez and only slightly less so than Alexei Yashin. While there were some laughable rumours that Schubert might have value as part of a package for Jay Bouwmeester, he is a spare part at this point and his value could scarcely be lower.

Schubert could fetch something similar to:

Feb 26th 2009.
- To Montreal: D Doug Janik (11GP, 1A, -2, 2 PIM.)
- To Dallas: W Steve Begin (42GP, 6G, 4A, 27 PIM)

Feb 3. 2009
- To Anaheim: D/W Sheldon Brookbank (15 GP, 0P, +1, 25 PIM.)
- To New Jersey: C David McIntyre (Drafted 138th Overall in 2006)

Feb 27th 2008
- To NY Islanders: D Rob Davison (15GP, 0P, -3, 21 PIM.)
- To San Jose: 7th Round Pick in 2008

- To Florida: D Magnus Johansson (18GP, 4A, -5, 15 SOG.)
- To Chicago: 7th Round Pick in 2009.

Don’t get your hopes up here. The Janik deal was more about Dallas acquiring Begin, and even if the Senators could get someone like that for Schubert, they would have no use for him as they are already flush with 4th line talent. Any kind of draft pick, or even just the removal of Schubert’s full salary from the team’s cap figure for next year, would have to be considered a success.

Jason Smith

Lastly, we come to the veteran Smith. The former captain of two NHL clubs brings experience and leadership to the room, if not speed and skill to the ice. Smith has one year remaining on his deal at a $2.6mil cap hit, which could make him difficult to move given his age and declining play. He is rumoured as a possible trade candidate, though what riches he would garner remains unclear to those circulating such speculation.

An observation of the market tells us Smith could bring something similar to any of the following hauls:

Sept 30th 2008
- To Los Angeles: Sean O’Donnell (82GP, 2G, 7A, 84PIM in 2007-08.)
- To Anaheim: Conditional Pick in 2009

Feb 27th 2008
- To Pittsburgh: D Hal Gill (63GP, 2G, 18A, 52PIM.)
- To Toronto: 2nd Round Pick in 2008, 5th Round Pick in 2009

- To New Jersey: D Bryce Salvador (56GP, 1G, 10A, +12, 43PIM.)
- To St. Louis: W Cam Janssen (Missed 63 games with shoulder injury, 1A, 12PIM in 12 games with St. Louis following trade)

Feb 20th 2008
- To Calgary: D Jim Vandermeer (28GP, 1G, 5A, 27PIM.)
- To Philadelphia: 3rd Round Pick in 2009.

As you can see, there is no player who has been dealt in the last year or so who fits an exact comparison to Smith. His stock may be higher than some of these players due to his leadership abilities, which are reputedly excellent. It may be lower because of his lack of speed and age. Given that the return on the veteran would be low due to his salary for next season, and that Smith is a Murray signing, smart money wagers he stays put.

If they do anything at all, the market history tells us that the Senators will be merely tweaking tomorrow afternoon, and that the major overhaul (if any) will come in the off-season. Nevertheless, I know I'll be sitting home to watch every second of this unfold... God, I'm a loser.

I will be a guest pannelist on The 6th Sens' Celeberity Trade Deadline Day Blog tomorrow. The panel will have a mystery Sens prospect, a former NHL GM, two thirds of TGOR, the loveable Ian Mendes, and many more. I reccomend a visit.