What is and What's to Be

Well, my market predictions re trade deadline were embarrassingly contradicted at every turn. Kuba re-signed, Vermette did get dealt for Leclaire, and nobody else moved. GM Bryan Murray did back up one of my prophecies, when he responded to questions as to why he did not deal Chris Neil with claims there was not much of a market for him. So I got one right and a whole bunch wrong. I think this qualifies me to fill Eklund’s position over at HockeyBuzz should he ever fall ill.

In a day that will no doubt live on in infamy amongst the female portion of the Ottawa Senators’ faithful, GM Bryan Murray dealt fleet footed piece of National Capital man-candy Antoine Vermette to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for comparatively unattractive but athletically talented goaltender Pascale Leclaire and a somewhat aesthetically amorphous second-round pick in this year’s draft. Since you are all fans of the team first, I assume you recognize the tantalizing potential of this acquisition, but nevertheless: My condolences, ladies. Regardless of the journalistic impact of the swap, I’d be disapointed off if TSN traded Holly Horton to CJOH for Leigh Chapple, so I feel your pain.

Kuba’s deal is for 3 years with a $3.7mil cap hit over that time frame. Rumours were circulating that Murray had given Kuba a no-movement-clause, but the speculation, according the GM himself, was only 33% true. Kuba has a NMC in the first year of his deal, meaning he can be moved in the latter two if the Senators see the need. While the team’s fan base was anxious to see what the Sens could get for the offensively talented but mistake-prone and physically diminutive rearguard, Murray wisely cautioned that a player like Kuba would be hard to come by this summer, especially at such a price-tag.

Murray addressed the moves he didn’t make in his press conference yesterday, embedded below. As previously mentioned, he determined the market for Neil was not what he was hoping for, and chose to retain the rugged winger in the hopes of working out a new deal. Murray also said he was hoping to move one more body for a pick (presumably Schubert, maybe Jason Smith) for a pick, but could not find a suitable offer.

Seeing how everyone and their dog has broken down then potential pros and cons of the moves, let’s stop living in the past (yesterday) and look to the future (this summer.) The Senators are in need of further tweaks to be a playoff team in April 2010, and major roster moves don’t often happen during the first half of the regular season in the salary cap NHL. This summer will be what makes or breaks this club, so let’s set the stage for the tough decisions to be made over these months now.

The Key Stats:
Cap Hit (based on 2009-10 salaries for the club’s regulars and Ray Emery’s buy-out): $51.01mil
Regulars Under Contract: 19
NTCs (as of July 1st, 2009): 6
$ tied to NTCs: $31.4mil
Notable FAs: Mike Comrie (UFA), Brian Elliott (RFA), Brendan Bell (RFA), Chris Neil (UFA)

Operating under the assumption that the upper cap is within $2mil of this year’s figure, up or down, you get the impression that there will be some salary shed at some point by the Sens. If Comrie is to return, somebody like a Chris Kelly, Jason Smith, or perhaps even Jason Spezza (provided there’s a substantial return) will have to be cleared to make room. There’s also the matter of getting some of Ottawa’s developing prospects signed, and making room for them to be full-time contributors should they warrant inclusion on the roster.

Simply put, Bryan Murray has not given himself a lot of room to manoeuvre, which either means he has a master plan pertaining to the salary structure of the club that we don’t know about and/or hasn’t been fully developed but involves major moves, or he is planning on going another with nearly the same roster that will finish the season amongst the also-rans of the National Hockey League.

I would bet he is planning the former, which would mean quite the exciting summer for fans in the Nation’s Capital.