What is and What's to Be

Well, my market predictions re trade deadline were embarrassingly contradicted at every turn. Kuba re-signed, Vermette did get dealt for Leclaire, and nobody else moved. GM Bryan Murray did back up one of my prophecies, when he responded to questions as to why he did not deal Chris Neil with claims there was not much of a market for him. So I got one right and a whole bunch wrong. I think this qualifies me to fill Eklund’s position over at HockeyBuzz should he ever fall ill.

In a day that will no doubt live on in infamy amongst the female portion of the Ottawa Senators’ faithful, GM Bryan Murray dealt fleet footed piece of National Capital man-candy Antoine Vermette to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for comparatively unattractive but athletically talented goaltender Pascale Leclaire and a somewhat aesthetically amorphous second-round pick in this year’s draft. Since you are all fans of the team first, I assume you recognize the tantalizing potential of this acquisition, but nevertheless: My condolences, ladies. Regardless of the journalistic impact of the swap, I’d be disapointed off if TSN traded Holly Horton to CJOH for Leigh Chapple, so I feel your pain.

Kuba’s deal is for 3 years with a $3.7mil cap hit over that time frame. Rumours were circulating that Murray had given Kuba a no-movement-clause, but the speculation, according the GM himself, was only 33% true. Kuba has a NMC in the first year of his deal, meaning he can be moved in the latter two if the Senators see the need. While the team’s fan base was anxious to see what the Sens could get for the offensively talented but mistake-prone and physically diminutive rearguard, Murray wisely cautioned that a player like Kuba would be hard to come by this summer, especially at such a price-tag.

Murray addressed the moves he didn’t make in his press conference yesterday, embedded below. As previously mentioned, he determined the market for Neil was not what he was hoping for, and chose to retain the rugged winger in the hopes of working out a new deal. Murray also said he was hoping to move one more body for a pick (presumably Schubert, maybe Jason Smith) for a pick, but could not find a suitable offer.

Seeing how everyone and their dog has broken down then potential pros and cons of the moves, let’s stop living in the past (yesterday) and look to the future (this summer.) The Senators are in need of further tweaks to be a playoff team in April 2010, and major roster moves don’t often happen during the first half of the regular season in the salary cap NHL. This summer will be what makes or breaks this club, so let’s set the stage for the tough decisions to be made over these months now.

The Key Stats:
Cap Hit (based on 2009-10 salaries for the club’s regulars and Ray Emery’s buy-out): $51.01mil
Regulars Under Contract: 19
NTCs (as of July 1st, 2009): 6
$ tied to NTCs: $31.4mil
Notable FAs: Mike Comrie (UFA), Brian Elliott (RFA), Brendan Bell (RFA), Chris Neil (UFA)

Operating under the assumption that the upper cap is within $2mil of this year’s figure, up or down, you get the impression that there will be some salary shed at some point by the Sens. If Comrie is to return, somebody like a Chris Kelly, Jason Smith, or perhaps even Jason Spezza (provided there’s a substantial return) will have to be cleared to make room. There’s also the matter of getting some of Ottawa’s developing prospects signed, and making room for them to be full-time contributors should they warrant inclusion on the roster.

Simply put, Bryan Murray has not given himself a lot of room to manoeuvre, which either means he has a master plan pertaining to the salary structure of the club that we don’t know about and/or hasn’t been fully developed but involves major moves, or he is planning on going another with nearly the same roster that will finish the season amongst the also-rans of the National Hockey League.

I would bet he is planning the former, which would mean quite the exciting summer for fans in the Nation’s Capital.

Market Watch

A wise man once said the secret to happiness is low expectations. If you don’t succumb to outstanding and outlandish anticipation, you will be more easily pleased more often and thus happier, or so the theory goes. Since I love you all so much, I’m here to tailor your expectations for you!

With the deadline rapidly approaching, it’s easy to get swept up in the TSN manufactured holiday, as Maple Leafs Coach Ron Wilson would call it. We north of the 49th have made what is a non-event in other sports into an all-out frenzy. As you may have heard, the Ottawa Senators are playing the role of sellers for the first time in over a decade and many fans have expectations higher than former BNL front man Stephen Page with a stack of rolled up Canadian $50s.

Many fans are hoping the deadline will allow management to completely remake the team and address some of the massive holes on the roster. However, this lofty optimism is likely unrealistic. Teams don’t usually make blockbuster “hockey trades” (that is, talent for talent deals that shuffle the proverbial deck of a team’s roster in a major way) at the deadline, but rather reserve that behaviour for the period in the between the draft and the start of unrestricted free agency. With that in mind, here is an assessment of the market that exists for some of the home team’s players who may be on the move.

BREAKING NEWS: TSN.ca is reporting that Sens GM Bryan Murray is spending Tuesday negotiating with the agents for Neil and Kuba and is hoping to get them signed to new deals. The article states Kuba’s agent has denied he is seeking at least $4.5mil per annum. Personally, I don’t think retaining either one makes much sense, but I don’t get to listen in on trade negotiations, so we’ll assume Bryan knows best.

All statistics in brackets are from the season the trade was made up to the day the player was traded.

Filip Kuba

Well, well, well. Turns out the prediction I made months ago is coming to fruition. Take that, detractors. As I said then, this team can’t afford to lose it’s #1 defender for the third time in four seasons. Kuba has a no-trade clause in his deal, but has communicated through his agent that he will waive it if asked. If the two sides can't get an extension done in the next 12 hours or so, he is as good as gone.

Some similar talents that have been dealt and the return:

Mar. 2nd 2009
- To New Jersey: D Niclas Havelid (63GP, 2G, 13A, +4) and F Myles Stoesz (207th Overall in 2005)
- To Atlanta: D Anssi Salmela (17GP, 3A, +1, 33 SOG)

Feb 17th 2009
- To Montreal: D Mathieu Schneider (44GP, 4G, 11A, 50PIM) and Conditional Pick in 2009.
- To Atlanta: 2nd Round Pick in 2009, 3rd Round Pick 2010.

Feb. 27th 2008
- To Anaheim: D Marc-Andre Bergeron (44GP, 9G, 9A, -14.)
- To NY Islanders: 3rd Round Pick in 2008.

- To Colorado: D Russlan Salei (65GP, 3G, 20A, -5.)
- To Florida: D Karlis Skrastins (43GP, 1G, 3A, -2) and a 3rd Round Pick in 2008.

- To Detroit: D Brad Stuart (63GP, 5G, 16A, -16.)
- To Los Angeles: 2008 2nd Round Pick, 2009 4th Round Pick

Havelid is the defenceman most comparable to Kuba’s this year, but Pierre McGuire said on the Team 1200 this morning that the feeling is Atlanta didn’t get “full value” for the Olympic Gold Medalist. Rumours are circulating that Murray is working to bring a first-round pick back this deadline, and Kuba represents his best chance of achieving that. However, unless someone desperately covets Kuba, a return similar to what LA got for Stuart and Florida for Salei seems more likely. Expect a 2nd rounder and either a low pairing defenceman/bottom six forward, a mid level prospect, or another pick.

Chris Neil

Neil is rumoured to be on the move, as his pay demands ($2.5mil/yr) are roughly $1mil more than Bryan Murray is willing to pay. Chris Neil has always been good in the community, loyal to this franchise, and appreciative of the fans’ affections. He does his job, but his offense has all but disappeared (He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 44 games this year.) While he has always been a stand up guy, it seems like it’s time for both sides to move on.

Comparables for Neil are:

Jan 7th 2009
- To Toronto: W Brad May (20GP, 0G, 5A, 28PIM.)
- To Anaheim: Conditional 6th Round Pick in 2010 in 2009.

Feb 26th 2008
- To Washington: W Matt Cooke (61GP, 7G, 9A, 64PIM.)
- To Vancouver: W Matt Pettinger (56GP, 2G, 5A, -11)

- To Florida: D/F Wade Belak (30GP, 1A, 66PIM)
- To Toronto: 5th Round Pick in 2008.

- To Minnesota: W Chris Simon (28GP, 1G, 2A, 43PIM)
- To NY Islanders: 6th Round Pick in 2008

Some fans may not like having Neil grouped in with Belak and Simon, but given his offensive production in recent months, that’s where he is. Granted Neil is a better skater than those two, but it’s hard to imagine his value being radically higher. Pat uncle Bryan on the back if he gets anything more than a late-round pick or a 4th liner for Neil.

Antoine Vermette

TSN and the Ottawa Sun are both reporting the possibility of Antoine Vermette being moved to the Columbus Blue Jackets, with Pascale Leclaire coming up from the Buckeye state in return. To me, this represents a huge risk. Murray would be adding salary in this deal, as Leclaire has two years left on his contract at a Gerber-esque $3.8M per. With so many free agent goaltenders of roughly the same calibre (Tim Thomas, Nikolai Khabibulin, and Marty Biron) it may make more sense for Murray to wait until the summer. Murray said last week he hold off until golf season to figure out his goaltending.

A few comparables in setting the market for Vermette:

Feb 7th, 2009
- To Carolina: W Jussi Jokinen (57GP, 7G, 14A)
- To Tampa Bay: D Wade Brookbank, D Josef Melichar, and a 4th Round pick.

Nov 24th 2008
- To Toronto: W Lee Stempniak (14GP, 3G, 10A, -3)
- To St. Louis: C Alex Steen (20GP, 2G, 2A, 31 SOG) and D Carlo Colaiacovo (10GP, 1A, -2, 9 SOG)

Feb 26th 2008
– To Washington: C/D Sergei Fedorov (50 GP, 9G, 19 A.)
– To Columbus: D Ted Ruth (47th Overall in 2007.)

– To Carolina: W Tuomo Ruutu (60GP, 6G, 15A.)
– To Chicago: W Andrew Ladd (43GP, 9G, 9A)

It is a little tricky to set the market for Vermette, but these may be the best comparables from the last two seasons. Vermette could realistically fetch one of the following: a mid-level prospect, a mediocre draft pick, a bottom three defenceman, or some spare parts. Stempniak may be the best comparison in terms of overall ability, but unless Murray is able to make a flat out “hockey trade,” that kind of return is unlikely. Adding to the weakness of that comparison is the fact that the deal was made in November, months removed from the distinct climate of the trade deadline. Given his modest $2.76 cap-hit and (frustratingly untapped) potential, they hang on to him unless they can find a cheaper substitute.

Christoph Schubert

Chrtistoph “I’m too picky to play forward in order to stay in the NHL” Schubert will definitely be moved if BM the GM can find a taker. He doesn’t play most nights, is part of the log-jam of defenders that necessitated the demotion of Brian Lee to the AHL, and has become more high-maintenance than Jennifer Lopez and only slightly less so than Alexei Yashin. While there were some laughable rumours that Schubert might have value as part of a package for Jay Bouwmeester, he is a spare part at this point and his value could scarcely be lower.

Schubert could fetch something similar to:

Feb 26th 2009.
- To Montreal: D Doug Janik (11GP, 1A, -2, 2 PIM.)
- To Dallas: W Steve Begin (42GP, 6G, 4A, 27 PIM)

Feb 3. 2009
- To Anaheim: D/W Sheldon Brookbank (15 GP, 0P, +1, 25 PIM.)
- To New Jersey: C David McIntyre (Drafted 138th Overall in 2006)

Feb 27th 2008
- To NY Islanders: D Rob Davison (15GP, 0P, -3, 21 PIM.)
- To San Jose: 7th Round Pick in 2008

- To Florida: D Magnus Johansson (18GP, 4A, -5, 15 SOG.)
- To Chicago: 7th Round Pick in 2009.

Don’t get your hopes up here. The Janik deal was more about Dallas acquiring Begin, and even if the Senators could get someone like that for Schubert, they would have no use for him as they are already flush with 4th line talent. Any kind of draft pick, or even just the removal of Schubert’s full salary from the team’s cap figure for next year, would have to be considered a success.

Jason Smith

Lastly, we come to the veteran Smith. The former captain of two NHL clubs brings experience and leadership to the room, if not speed and skill to the ice. Smith has one year remaining on his deal at a $2.6mil cap hit, which could make him difficult to move given his age and declining play. He is rumoured as a possible trade candidate, though what riches he would garner remains unclear to those circulating such speculation.

An observation of the market tells us Smith could bring something similar to any of the following hauls:

Sept 30th 2008
- To Los Angeles: Sean O’Donnell (82GP, 2G, 7A, 84PIM in 2007-08.)
- To Anaheim: Conditional Pick in 2009

Feb 27th 2008
- To Pittsburgh: D Hal Gill (63GP, 2G, 18A, 52PIM.)
- To Toronto: 2nd Round Pick in 2008, 5th Round Pick in 2009

- To New Jersey: D Bryce Salvador (56GP, 1G, 10A, +12, 43PIM.)
- To St. Louis: W Cam Janssen (Missed 63 games with shoulder injury, 1A, 12PIM in 12 games with St. Louis following trade)

Feb 20th 2008
- To Calgary: D Jim Vandermeer (28GP, 1G, 5A, 27PIM.)
- To Philadelphia: 3rd Round Pick in 2009.

As you can see, there is no player who has been dealt in the last year or so who fits an exact comparison to Smith. His stock may be higher than some of these players due to his leadership abilities, which are reputedly excellent. It may be lower because of his lack of speed and age. Given that the return on the veteran would be low due to his salary for next season, and that Smith is a Murray signing, smart money wagers he stays put.

If they do anything at all, the market history tells us that the Senators will be merely tweaking tomorrow afternoon, and that the major overhaul (if any) will come in the off-season. Nevertheless, I know I'll be sitting home to watch every second of this unfold... God, I'm a loser.

I will be a guest pannelist on The 6th Sens' Celeberity Trade Deadline Day Blog tomorrow. The panel will have a mystery Sens prospect, a former NHL GM, two thirds of TGOR, the loveable Ian Mendes, and many more. I reccomend a visit.

Vancouver 5; Ottawa 2 / Trade Reaction

The Game

After picking up points in seven straight games (12 of a possible 14, to be precise,) Ottawa laid a bit of an egg against a Western-Canadian foe. The Sens looked to be putting in the effort, but ended up the victims of an hour-long game of keep-away, as the Canucks dominated puck possession to come away with the 5-2 win.

The story in this one was Ottawa's inability to contain Vancouver's offensive zone pressure. The Canucks sent two men deep into the offensive zone with frequency, and the Sens did not cover their defensive assignments, leaving Vancouver forwards open to make skilled plays.

Filip Kuba did not have a very good game, as he gave away the puck with such frequency that I bean to think he was convinced it carried syphilis. Two very poor clearing attempts by Ottawa's piece of Czech trade bait eventually led to Vancouver's first goal.

Ottawa's entire defence corps didn't have their best overall game. I thought the points on the powerplay were sloppy, as they let a lot of pucks cross the blueline, thus alleviating pressure. To be fair though, on many occasions such breakdowns were the result of panicked plays by the Sens'

Despite what the stats look like, Brian Elliott did not have a poor outing. On two goals he was the victim of the aforementioned poor defensive coverage, as an opponent left open in the slot had an open net to shoot on after receiving a tape to tape pass. Another was a tip of the stick of Jason Smith that handcuffed Elliott, who had committed to the original shot.

Hopefully the effort was the result of the dreaded "first-home-game-after-a-road-trip-effect" and not the beckon ing of the club's return to suck. We shall see Saturday, as a re-vamped Sens squad takes on the Montreal Canadiens. Note the 3PM start time, as the game is the matinee portion of CBC's Hockey Day in Canada.

The Trade

See Details in the Wrap Up.

I still don't know exactly how I feel about this deal.

I was initially ecstatic at the prospect of re-acquiring Mike Comrie, until my brain informed me he was, in fact a UFA this summer. My excitement changed to disappointment, but then back to excitement again, as Comrie gives Bryan Murray a little flexibility.

Murray has a choice: Keep Comrie for the stretch drive, and hope to be able to meet his salary demands with the club having more cap-space this summer; OR flip Comrie to another team as a rental for a package he likes better. Realistically, either one is an option.

On paper, Comrie fills the club's vacancy at centre and could very easily be retained in that role for an affordable amount. However, Comrie has only 20 points in 41 games this year, and 69 in the 117 games he's played since leaving Ottawa. My renewed excitement could still turn back into regret.

Murray said on the Team 1200 that the real reason he made the deal was to acquire Chris Campoli. I won't lie and claim to be an expert on Campoli's play, but from what I gather, he should help to make the Sens' back end more mobile. Campoli puts up decent numbers, but his -20 rating for this year is a big red flag. Granted, he was playing on a terrible team in Long Island, but that number is rather low for my liking regardless of cicrumstance. Time will tell how he will respond to a change of scenery.

Campoli's $675K cap hit through next season is a winner though, as it gives the Sens room to maneuver this summer while still having a mobile puck mover in tow. I'm sure Murray and his scouts feel Campoli is a blooming offensive defenceman who will add to Ottawa's rich tradition of stealing valuable players from the Isalnders' system. I hope for the his sake he's right. Otherwise, the consequences will be dire.

The loss of Dean McAmmond is not cause for dismay. I had actually started work on an article listing my reasons for disliking McAmmond a few days ago, and they were as follows: He's small, not as quick as he once was, possesses stone hands, and does not play a significant role on the team. Why the Islanders were even interested in him is beyond me, frankly. I assume his inclusion was on a numbers-basis.

It does sting to see the Senators give up San Jose's first-rounder (likely to be in the 25-20 rnage) in what is allegedly a deep draft. That was a good piece to use for improving this team 5 years down the line.

How history views this deal, and thus Murray, will turn on Campoli's development and the depth of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft,

Pad Beef

Former Ottawa Senators coach John Paddock had some unkind words for his old boss today. Paddock, currently the head coach of the AHL's Phillidelphia Phantoms, holds GM Bryan Murray responsible for the mess that is the current Ottawa Senators, followed closely by the players for being "not very good." The man who oversaw the dynasty that was the Winnipeg Jets of the early 1990s was quoted as follows in today's Camden Courier-Post:

"I think now (Murray's) next in line... We were 14 games over .500 when I
was fired. They're seven under now. Somebody needs to take responsibility for
that. Whether the coaches he hired and fired were good or not, they're his
players and they're either not playing good or can't play, one or the other...
The players are not very good, that's the problem." - John Paddock

I detect a note of bitterness. Somebody care to remind John that he was fired in February, and the team was 14 games over .500 in November, meaning they played .500 hockey for about 4 months under his tutelage, which over 82 games in the 3-point-game NHL, is well below what is required for playoff contention. The team was in a tailspin when Paddock was relieved of duty, and was coming off two ugly blowout losses, so that 14 games over .500 stat is VERY deceiving.

Paddock is right though, the personnel Murray has in place are not the greatest, but as I have routinely pointed out, Murray did not assemble the majority of this roster. Apparently, people in the hockey world have short memories, possibly from all the blows to the head. Blaming Murray for the club's decline would be like crediting Brian Burke for drafting Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaff, and acquiring J.S. Giguere to lead the Ducks to playoff glory... which many people do with annoying frequency.

My pro-Ottawa bias notwithstanding, it is interesting to get the candid perspective of an individual who was a part of this team over their decline. Whether you agree with Paddock or not, he is likely one of the more informed voices who has called for Bryan Murray's head - likely the most.

For more, consult Michael Landsberg on TSN's Off the Record, where he and a panel three or four Torontonians will no doubt spend eight minutes agreeing with Paddock, and lambasting Murray for signing Gerber and trading Chara after the NHL strike.

General Anlysis of Debatable Worth on a Tuesday

I failed to write a post game report due to my participation in a McDonald's double-cheeseburger eating contest (I finished in 1st place with 10) following the Sens' 3-2 shootout victory. You would be surprised the level of delerium 20 of those greasy faux-meat-squares can inflict on a man. In light of my glutony, and Andy's participation in the real world is interrupting his once steady flow of morning wrap-ups, I felt it appropriate to provide all 30 of you who read this with anything resembling regularity with your TSC "fix."

A few notes of possible interest:

1) I thought the Sens were great on Saturday, at least compared to the continuous mediocrity we’ve all come to know and love. They peppered Ryan Miller with 42 shots over 65 minutes of hockey, and looked energetic and focused while doing so. While I am not prepared to back this up with "research" at the moment, that has to be one of, if not THE, highest shot count the team has posted all year. Kudos, fellas.

I think what most impressed me was the team's effort in the shootout. I felt all was lost after the talented Mr. Spezza missed on his first attempt but lo, the team rebounded. How about Jarkko-freakin'-Ruutu and that leg kick deke he pulled? We all knew he was good in the shootout, but man alive that was unexpected. Mike Fisher and Daniel Alfredsson also pulled what appeared to be new tricks out of their bag of shootout moves. Chris Yzerman appears to have been spot on.

Since I feel the need to conform to the standards set out by my superiors in the print media, I am going to credit Cory Clouston for the improved shootout effort, and also suggest Bryan Murray should be fired for not hiring a better shootout coach earlier, and also for not getting Jay Bouwmeester for Vermette, Schubert, and a 7th-rounder yet.

2) Did anyone watch Coach's Corner during the intermission this week? If you did not, you missed quite the show. While I will give honourable mention to the disturbing love-letter-esque montage Don Cherry clearly supervised that paid homage to both him and Bobby Orr (while, ironically, never showing the two together at any point) that literally brought Cherry to tears, the highlight of the week had to be Cherry's public shaming of Thomas Vanek.

Cherry intimated that Vanek’s fractured jaw courtesy an Anton Volchenkov slapshot was not, as I had assumed, the product of bad luck but rather the divine providence of the hockey gods. As we all should have guessed, Vanek’s dynamic individual performance against the Maple Leafs, wherein he recorded a hat trick, was in fact the cause of his injury. Apparently, the hockey gods are very similar to most of CBC’s broadcast talent, in that they are thinly veiled Leaf fans. When Vanek “ran up the score.” He earned himself a very painful injury. Had he done so against the hapless Senators, I’m sure the correlation would have gone unnoticed. One implication that I found particularly newsworthy is the revelation that in NHL hockey, apparently, a 5-0 win is now “running up the score.” Had Vanek allowed the Leafs a chance to steal a much needed two points from the Sabres, who are in a tight playoff race, the gods would have spared the Austrian goal scorer. Kids: Remember, if you beat the Leafs, god will break your jaw.

3) The normally competent Allen Panzeri penned what was I consider to be his most glaringly revisionist and sub-standard piece to date for Saturday’s edition of the Ottawa Citizen. I’m usually a fan of his work, so Allen, if you read this (though I’m sure you won’t) know that it’s strictly business, not personal.

Panzeri sought out to assess each transaction the Ottawa has made since the lock-out, grading each one “good”, “bad”, “good deal gone bad”, or “jury’s still out.” I dispute many of Panzeri’s conclusions, such as his decision to altogether omit Muckler’s acquisition of Tyler Arnason, signing of Joe Corvo and giving him a pass on signing Martin Gerber. Equally offensive was his unequivocal condemnation of Murray’s signing of depth offensive defenceman Brendan Bell, and his evaluation of the 2005, 2006, 2007, and particularly the 2008 draft as anything other than “the jury’s still out” as in today’s NHL, one must allow at least 6 or 7 years before judging what a team got out of a draft.

The article, included here, does not have the convenient little chart contained in the print edition, neatly summarizing everything wrong with the club.

That Panzeri feels himself qualified to judge all of the club’s transactions in black, white, blackish-grey and whitish-grey is the height of journalistic arrogance, as each transaction is only given a brief overview, many of which don’t give any in-depth consideration to the salary cap consequences of a move. salary cap figures dominate trade negotiations, and to0 neglect their role in the process is short sighted. How Mr. Panzeri termed the Peter Schaefer (a player who is no longer in the NHL, and had 3 years and $7 million left on his deal) for Shean Donovan (a player who had 1 year, and $800K remaining on his) a failure is beyond me. Talent wise, that may not have been the best move, but cap wise, it was a winner.

Panzeri seems to be joining the growing crowd of people who have chosen to heap the blame on Bryan Murray for the club’s current struggles. This trend is simply unfair.

Nobody was crying foul when many of Murray’s “bad deals” were made. How many of you can honestly look within your souls and say you thought, based on previous performance, Mike Fisher, Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, or Ray Emery should have been let go at the time they signed their deals? How many of you were not in favour of adding Cory Stillman’s scoring and Mike Commodore’s professed defensive prowess, and jettisoning the fragile, moody, and inconsistent Joe Corvo’s cap hit? Patrick Eaves has done nothing since he left for Carolina, and was producing precious little prior to his trade, so don’t cry foul over his loss. And I don’t want to hear that “we should have kept Wade Redden” line out of you, because the team’s fan base was calling for his head and he is being grossly overpaid for his nevertheless under-rated services in Manhattan.

The fact of the matter is, Murray is a good GM who is in the wrong place at the wrong time. John Muckler traded away a 2nd round pick and a prospect (see Brooks Laich) every year he was here, and his scouts uncovered no late-round hidden gems up to this point. He got nothing for key building block Martin Havlat, and based on talent alone, how many of you would do that Heatley for Hossa deal again today? The cap relief that came from Heatley’s reduced salary, and offloading Greg DeVries’ contract, which was what made this deal a winner.

Murray inherited a track record of poor asset management that is readily demonstrable, and while his moves have not been sterling, and his reputation is deservedly un-teflonish, Murray should not be blamed for the gradual erosion of this team’s keys to victory: strong drafting and frugal player personnel decision that garnered maximum value. Murray has new people in place, so give the man a few drafts, and a chance to make and use cap space before casting him into the flames with Mel Bridgeman and Randy Sexton.

4) Nick Foligno and Brian Lee continue to impress. Foligno scored another goal on Saturday off a tip, with credit owing to his willingness to drive the net. Foligno appears to be a huge benefactor of a more aggressive forechecking system, as he has been great in the offensive zone, winning battles for loose pucks and making smart plays. I liked the speed and offensive flair of the line he was one with Ryan Shannon and Mike Fisher.
Lee is looking more and more like he could help the club fill one of their "Puck Moving Defenceman" vacancies from within. One play he made on Saturday night really stood out in this regard. He took a bad pass of the outside of his skate inside his own blueline and, without breaking stride, corralled the puck and hit Mike Fisher with a tape to tape pass just outside the Buffalo zone. In a season where the club has struggled to make those outlet passes, Lee is beginning to get the hang of the trade. The rookie is always willing to take contact to make a play, and shows good patience and hockey sense when he has time with the puck. Lee has been, in my opinion, right behind Filip Kuba as the number 2 option on the club's defensive depth chart since Christmas.

The progress of these two young players this season, coupled with the benefits of an off-season of hard work, provides hope that the sens may see improvements in a few areas of weakness next season: Notably their breakout, secondary scoring, and forechecking.

Days of Reckoning Have Begun: Sens Fire Hartsburg

Ottawa Senators GM Bryan Murray made a bold move last night, firing coach Craig Hartsburg. This marks the second time in as many seasons Murray has fired a coach before the end of February despite having hired the man during the previous off-season. Binghamton Senators head coach Cory Clouston will finish the season as the Sens' bench-boss.

I for one am somewhat confused by this move. Clouston represents the fourth coach the team has had since they went into their tailspin in December of 2007. I am not around the team every day, and thus my reservations are founded on speculative premises, but it seems like there is more to what plagues this hockey club than simply poor coaching. The team's on-ice personnel is simply inadequate. They are no longer an elite club talent-wise, they do not put in a respectable night's work on a consistent basis, and at times they seem unwilling to play for one another. The defence, the goaltending situation, and secondary scoring personnel are all issues that must be resolved before any coach will have success here. The system is wounded from the mistakes ordered up by John Muckler, and to a lesser extent Bryan Murray, and will not be healed in the immediate future.

That is not to say Hartsburg didn't have his faults. For someone who used the term "accountability" so frequently that it had begun to lose its meaning as a word, there is very little evidence, from the etic observer's perspective, that Hartsburg held his players responsible for their missteps in any meaningful way. Again, I realize I am not afforded the luxury of spending time around the team and I don't know what is said behind closed doors, but short of calling a few players out in the media, I don't really see any examples of the radically increased allotment of accountability Hartsburg preached for. Furthermore, there have been repeated rumblings that the players did not like the system Hartsburg had set up for them. Whether or not this is true, the team clearly wasn't buying in on too many a night, so maybe a change is for the best.

What is most surprising about today's news is not who was fired, but who was hired. You would think, having twice failed in reclamation projects, that Murray would have gone with an experienced NHL coach. Instead, Murray opted to hire from within, and chose a candidate with no NHL experience. To his credit, Cory Clouston has been a winner at every level. His five season with the Kelowna Rockets saw his team qualify for the post-season each year, won the Dunc McCallum Trophy as WHL Coach of the Year in 2005 and 2007, and walked away with the Brian Kilrea Trophy as CHL Coach of the Year in 2005. After a tough season in 2007-08, Clouston has the B-Sens back in a playoff spot as of today.


The man had some interesting things to say at his press conference, which I have posted below. A few of the things he said at his introductory press conference struck a chord with me. He mentioned that it was part of his philosophy to make coming to the rink fun, which, looking at the faces on the Sens' bench, might be just what this team needs. The former University of Alberta Golden Bear mentioned the need for the coaching staff to help give the players confidence and make them feel good about themselves. He also stated that while he would like the club to have a plan on the breakout and in the neutral zone, he would also like to see the team play with more firepower. This is a potentially precarious plan (alliteration unintended,) since the team's offensive arsenal is not what it once was. I like his philosophy at first glance, and it certainly seems like a change of pace from what Hartsburg brought to the table.

I am a supporter of Bryan Murray's, as the work he has done elsewhere as a GM has been excellent, but at some point one has to question how much longer he has to live in his current role. Both of the coaches he has hired have been, by his own admission, mistakenly tasked with a job for which they were later deemed unfit. Applying further egg to Murray's face is the fact that both John Paddock and Craig Harstburg had been unsuccessful NHL head coaches before stepping behind the home team's bench at Scotiabank Place. While I feel one needs to give a GM 3-4 years on the job before assessing their performance too critically, and I am not calling for Murray's head by any means, even the highest grade Teflon will eventually peel off a wiper blade. If Clouston doesn't turn things around (which I feel for the reasons listed above, odds are, he won't) do Eugene Melnyk and Roy Mlakar afford Murray the chance to hire another coach? Perhaps more pressingly - was Murray's decision to make this move motivated by his own lack of job security?

Going forward, BM the GM is going to have to give the world some kind of indication that he has a plan, and he will likely be judged by what he does this off-season and at the trade deadline. This team has a talented core, but needs to add a few prospects to their system, as well as moderately priced roster players who can fill immediate needs. If Murray can bring some of these types of assets for players who are not fitting into the vision this team has going forward, while using his cap space wisely this summer, this team could be back in the post-season in 2010. If he makes one bad trade and/or signing too many -given that he works for an owner that doesn't harbour much of a tolerance for losing - one would have to think his job security may be in jeopardy.

While They May Take On Pleasing Forms, Sens Still Themselves: New Jersey 4; Ottawa 1

Out-shot, out-chanced, out-goaltended, and all together outplayed, the Ottawa Senators dropped a contest with the New Jersey Devils for the third time this season. While the Senators had their chances, the Devils were the better team on this night and reaped the spoils that follow. As was the case the last time the Sens played Jersey, their play was not terribly bad, but they were simply not able to find a way to get the two points against a superior opponent. The Ottawas, as Craig Hartsburg mentions below, were plagued by their inability to play a full 60 minutes, as they seemed to go to sleep in the final frame.

Ottawa had a number of scoring chances, but only managed to beat Scott Clemmensen once on an Alex Picard one-timer that came on the man-advantage (though they did hit a post as well.) I found Clemmensen to be the superior netminder on the night, which is not intended to be a knock on Brian Elliott. The Sens had some quality chances in the first two periods, and Clemmensen shut the door. Elliott had his moments in the game, making a very noticeable glove save in the second period - the result of a self-inflicted rush he created with an errant stretch pass that led to a turnover. However, the rookie tender also allowed a shaky goal or two. Personally, I would like to see more poise and consistency from Elliott, and that may come as he adjusts to life in the NHL.

For me, the Sens were dead in the water when they failed to sustain any meaningful pressure on their third period four minute power play, courtesy of the dastardly Brendan Shanahan's malicious high stick on our lord and saviour Daniel Alfredsson. While Our Father Who Art in Kanata was sitting on the bench with gauze in his lip, his teammates were the victims of a schoolyard-style game of keep away, with the New Jersey Devils playing the role of older, taller, cretinous bullies. Down two goals, Ottawa needed to use that opportunity to get back into this game by either scoring a goal or gaining some momentum. They accomplished neither, not even registering a shot, and the remainder of the match was nothing more than a figurative whimper.

The Senators will likely silence the Over the Edgers who, being incapable of seeing more than 3 days into the past, espoused renewed optimism towards Ottawa's prospects of a playoff push. The Sens will get a chance to pick up some more points Thursday and Friday, when they face fellow doormats the St. Louis Blues before travelling to the capital of the buckeye state to take on the newly plucky Columbus Blue Jackets.

Notes:

1) I was surprised that Craig Hartsburg drew Jason Smith out of the line-up, though not mystified. Ottawa is looking more and more like they are evaluating what they have in terms of assets with an eye on next season, and Smith doesn't seem to be a piece that fits into the overall puzzle going forward. The club appears to be looking to strike a balance of four offensive defencemen and two stay at home guys; That is to say, the ratio they dressed back when they still won playoff games. It will be interesting to see how the situation plays itself out over the next few weeks. I'd wager Smith will find himself back in the line-up before too long, likely at the expense of Brendan Bell.

2) Martin Gerber has been sent back to Binghamton for the time being. I have a hard time believing Gerber will find a new home in the NHL given his contract and inability to perform reliably even in short spurts. While Gerber would help the Baby Sens stay in contention in the AHL's Eastern Conference, the logical move for the organization is a return to Europe. Eugene Melnyk is probably about as keen to eat Gerber's salary in the minors as he is to share Frank Clair Stadium with Ottawa's 409th CFL franchise. Moreover, the front office needs to decide what they have in Jeff Glass as a deep draft approaches. The best way to do that is to let the man play regularly.

Sens Waive Goodbye to Gerber

Martin Gerber was placed on waivers by the Ottawa Senators this afternoon. This revelation is about as shocking as finding out an adult actresses has "had some work done". Given that Gerber was sent to Binghamton a week ago on a "conditioning assignment," the writing was pretty much on the wall as per his future with the organization. The Swiss national will no doubt clear waivers as the market for $3.7M back-up goaltenders has dried up. These are tough economic times, after all. Once he goes unclaimed, you would have to think he will be hopping on a plane to Europe. While playing in Binghamton is an option for ol' Marty, the Senators would probably rather give the playing time Gerber would receive to their developing prospects. Although both of their AHL goalies are sub-standard, and the B-Sens are in playoff contention for the first time since the lockout year, so anything is possible. Bryan Murray will sit down with Gerber Monday when the two will plot out his future.

Count me among those who are disappointed with how the Martin Gerber Saga has played out. While I became one of his detractors many moons ago, there was once a time when I mistakenly believed him to be just what this franchise was looking for. I will be the first to admit I thought bringing Gerber in was a good move at the time. It was before I had Centre Ice, and thus before I got the chance to watch a lot of Hurricanes games. My scouting notes on Gerber while he was in Carolina were comprised of one dominating performance against team Canada in Torino, a few impressive nights against the Sens, and maybe one or two more games here or there. I mean, ya I saw him flake out in the playoffs against the Habs, but everyone said he had the flu and his stats were great in Anaheim. What could go wrong, right?

Well, apparently just about everything. Gerber never really performed consistently and ended up being surpassed by three different goalies during his stay with the Senators. 2007-08 was likely his best year, one where he was the club's starter by default as Ray Emery imploded. Gerber was lights out during the Ottawa's 15-2 run in October-November of 2007, and played pretty well in the playoffs despite Ottawa losing to Pittsburgh 4-0. However, Gerber was unable to play up to his potential on a regular basis, and he drew the ire of fans and analysts accordingly. Gerber's huge salary acted as a weight tied to the ankle of GM Bryan Murray and John Muckler before him, limiting the ability of those men to make roster moves, particularly since he made himself un-tradable by preforming poorly. With all the talk about how gosh darn perfect Detroit is, people should be reminded that numerous media outlets reported Detroit offered this guy more money than Ottawa in July 2006. It would be interesting to see where both teams would be right now if Gerber had taken the pay day rather than opting for the pressure of a Canadian market. Coulda, shoulda, woulda, though.

Gerber's reign in Ottawa has been synonymous with soft, deflating goals and he can now add an unceremonious departure to his legacy. If I had to sum up his exodus in a sentence, I would look to the words of King of the Hill's Kahn Souphanousinphone: "Long, painful, boring death!"

Panthers Waive Cory Murphy?

TSN.ca is reporting the Florida Panthers waived Kanata native Cory Murphy Monday. The Panthers website mentions nothing of this, instead stating he was recalled from a two-week conditioning stint. Murphy, who has somewhat of a flair for the offensive side of the game, was thought by some pundits to be part of a deal Ottawa's Bryan Murray was discussing with Panthers GM Jacques Martin.

Since 48-hours have passed since he would have been waived, it's safe to say that the Sens won't be claiming him. You would have to think that if he was waived and the Senators were willing to give up anything of value for him, they would have pulled the trigger on this one. That they didn't likely scuttles any notion that Murray was pursuing Murphy. The Panthers' defender is injury prone, having missed 60 games over the past two seasons due to shoulder injuries, but has put up decent offensive numbers in the NHL last season when healthy. He will be a UFA July 1st, and his price tag is what remains on his $825K deal.

If he has been waived, it would be nice to see BM the GM take a flyer on him. The risk is fairly low as the Sens can walk away from him at the end of the year, and he does bring a bit of what the Sens need to the table. At this point in the season there's really no reason not to look at what's out there when the price is right. Murray has shown a willingness to bring in guys with local connections for the right price (Shean Donovan, Brendan Bell, Jesse Winchester, Luke Richardson, Alexandre Picard) so don't be shocked if the Sens use some of their cap space during the summer to secure his services. He may be a suitable replacement for someone like Brendan Bell if Bell is not brought back.

Fidel Likely to be Exiled

Rumours are flying around the Nation’s Capital, and they have surprisingly little to do with the status of the city’s transit strike, or the prospects of a coalition government at the conclusion of the prorogation of Canada’s federal legislature. Important issues that affect the day to day lives of those who live and work in the town that By built have taken a back seat in the hearts and minds of many Ottawans, giving way to a far more serious crisis: What the heck is wrong with that local hockey team? Will the once vilified Pat Quinn coach the team now that the juniors are over? Will Antoine Vermette and the teenlust he spawns be cast away? And what’s to be done with this Jason Spezza? People here, there, and everywhere (everywhere being TSN) have insinuated for weeks that a deal is imminent, and that event X is the final straw that will prompt BM the GM to go Len Barrie and trade 58.63% of his roster in a full scale maelstrom of panic. Yet nothing materializes.

Could it be that they are just making up rumours to generate interest and pull at the heartstrings? Salacious accusations, I know, but stranger things have happened. Coincidentally, I have noticed the aforementioned provocateurs all enjoy much broader readership than I. Taking these observations into account, I have devised myself a plan that should be the envy of most any man; I shall fabricate a rumour of my very own creation!

Filip Kuba will be traded sometime between now and March 4th, 2009 – count on it. I will tell you that I have no inside man who is in close contact with Bryan Murray on a daily basis, and frankly I am beginning to have serious doubts as to whether any members of the SensPress - both new and traditional – do either. Furthermore, I have not been “hearing a lot of” buzz, talk, conjecture, or what have you from reputable sources. The scenario at hand is just so freaking plausible that your more discerning Golden Retrievers could storyboard it soon after having woken up from a severe frontal lobotomy. Kuba being a piece of trade deadline candy makes sense for so many different reasons. Let us count them:

1) The Team: Ok, so now that we’ve all removed our Alex Auld coloured glasses and done a little mental math, most of us are sold on this being a non-playoff year. Disappointing, but think of it this way: The last time the Sens missed the playoffs, your graduate student author was 2 years away from sprouting secondary body hair. We’ve had it good, but all good things come to an end. The team has two first-round picks in this year’s draft and some money coming off the books; now is as good a time as any to conduct a minor rebuild. If this team isn’t a seller at the deadline, I’ll sacrifice a goat to the hockey gods both in tribute for the miracle they performed and in penance for my blasphemous disbelief.

2) The Contract: Fidel’s in his contract year, and has a $3M cap hit. Since teams bank unspent cap dollars from earlier in the season, and would only have to pay the remaining amount of the diminutive defender’s yearly stipend, Kuba will be very moveable. By the trade deadline, there will be less than $1M left on his deal, and teams will have room to add. As you may be aware, there is a demand for offensive defencemen, meaning an inexpensive plug for a #2 to #4 hole could attract interest and value from other teams. Also, Kuba will likely command more than the Sens are willing to pay for his services, and the likelihood of his 8 month stay having fostered the level of allegiance that would facilitate a hometown discount during a rebuilding process is slim to nil.


3) The Big Picture: We’ve been down this road before. We lost Zdeno Chara for nothing, and despite Murray’s best efforts, we lost Wade Redden too. While Kuba will fetch substantially less than Chara or Redden would have, this team CANNOT afford to lose its “#1” defenceman without getting anything in return for the third time in four years. It’s simply not an option.

4) The Puppet Master: Murray had to trade away one of the club’s recent first round draft picks (Andrej Meszaros) under the threat of an offer sheet courtesy the newly-wacky Tampa Bay Lightning brass. Believing in the playoff potential of his roster, Murray acquired a proven NHL defenceman to compliment his group in the deal. That belief appears to be dying. Anything Kuba can bring back that would help this club build for the future will make that Meszaros deal look better. While I don’t think The Bryan’s job security should be in question, his reactionary billionaire boss might feel differently. If Murray gets something of value for Kuba, he might look like a genius. If he lets him walk, well the Meszaros trade might not look so hot to Mr. Melnyk.

There you go folks. I don’t know where he is going, or who/what is coming back, but I’ll bet you a nice, crisp $20 bill than when the Senators clean out their lockers this April, Filip Kuba will be property of a different organization.

So there you have it. Now go forth my pretties, and propagate!

FAIL: Toronto 3, Ottawa 1

Happy New Year Internet!

I appologize for "leaving you hanging" - as the kids say - this past week. Between family visits, appeasing my girlfriend, and using the free World Junior tickets I attract like unattended pop cans attract wasps on a summer's day, there was very little time left over for blogging. I know you are looking for a committed relationship, and after taking some time to gain a little perspective, I'm ready for that. I'm here for you now, baby. Shh. Shh.

Moving on to hockey, the Senators have now accumulated 3 regulation goals in 3 games against the league's most porous defence. Aren't you just mystified by how they are in serious contention for a lottery pick in this year's draft? It hurts me to watch the once mighty Senators fall to the once (and still) feeble Maple Leafs in this manner. Adding insult to injury: Missing a classic Canada-Russia showdown for this crap. Here are the memorable moments from Game 36:


Christoph Schubert had another chance wear goat horns tonight, as he was guilty of dogging it on the Leafs' second goal. Schubert created a rush for the Leafs by turning the puck over at the leaf blue line, and then made no effort to intercept the Pavel Kubina pass that set up Alexei Ponikarovski 's goal. Schubert's lack of hustle and effort has become increasingly apparent as he fills in for the injured Filip Kuba. He hasn't been the same since pitching a fit after not being given a full time job on the Sens' back end. Craig Hartsburg has opted to stop using Schubert as a forward, and the German defender has been shabby during his rare appearances on the Senator blue line. I sense his days in Bytown are numbered.


Martin Gerber should have been credited with an assist on the Maple Leaf''s third goal, as his sheer confusion and lack of awareness of his surroundings provided measurable help. To be fair, that was Gerber's only bad goal tonight.


Anton Volchenkov was back in the line-up and was having a whale of a game, blocking five shots, including two on a Toronto 5-on-3. Then the A Train went off the rails, re-injuring his shoulder after taking a hit behind Martin Gerber's net. He left the game in the third period and did not return.


Fearless captain Daniel "Barrack Obama + Martin Luther King Jr. + Winston Churchill + Abraham" Alfredsson was quoted as saying he's been trying to maintain a positive attitude and a superior work ethic during the prolonged hard times. It appears to be working for him personally, as Alfredsson was one of the better Senators on the ice, registering the Ottawas' only goal.

The CBC broadcast did not break any new ground. Craig Simpson took the opportunity to rip on the Senators for everything under the sun for the second consecutive week. Every mistake by the Sens served as an opportunity for Simpson to illustrate how the faux pas neatly summarizes "what is wrong with the Ottawa Senators." How convenient.



The Satellite Hotstove did serve up some interesting fodder. Al Strachan and Mike Milbury clearly hate one another, which I feel makes for excellent TV. I haven't seen the program in almost a month, as I have spent my Saturdays attending hockey games, but I sorely missed the thinly veiled aggression Milbury evidently harbours towards Strachan. This week's installment of the intermission snippet sated my craving. The Hotstove featured an abundance of catty comments between the man who brought Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden and Jason Spezza to Ottawa and the Montreal Gazette reporter. This week's highlight: Mad Mike insinuated Strachan was "a little light in the loafers." He called him gay! What wit!

In other Hotstove news, Pierre Lebrun said the Senators may look to make a deal with the Atlanta Thrashers to find that elusive puck-moving defenceman. This almost made sense, until Lebrun stated the Senators would receive Mathieu Schneider from Atlanta, Senators sending Antoine Vermette to Dixie in return. Why the Senators would give up an asset to acquire a cap cancer in a contract year that also happens to be -13 is beyond me. This team's season is likely provide, and they don't seem to be in a position to take on rental players. Chalk this one up in the "Not a Chance in Hell" column.

Ottawa better drink this one off quick, as they need to be ready to receive another shellacking at the hands of the New Jersey Devils tomorrow at 5PM in Newark. Until then: CATCH THE HOPE!

Ottawa 5, Dallas 4 (OT)

The tyranny of the normally excellent CBC (non hockey aspects) forced me to acquire standing room tickets to tonight's game. For those of you who missed it, I have the nitty gritty. However, I have a few pieces of business to conduct before moving on to any analysis. To the entire row of people who didn't show up to claim their section 320 row G seats: Thank you, they were lovely. To the beer swilling, constantly shouting father-son team who sat behind me for the third period: Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, guys. To the francophone gentlemen who sat in front of me: Yes, Radek Bonk, Alexei Yashin, and Alexandre Daigle were all once Ottawa Senators. However, they no longer play for the team. The loud chanting of their names throughout the entire game was wholly unnecessary for a litany of reasons.

The story of this game was the solid performances of the team's role players. Cody Bass threw a number of bone rattling body checks, his third period hit on Matt Niskanen (see below) standing out among them. Anton Volchenkov blocked four shots and threw five hits while playing a very strong and simple defensive game. Chris Neil didn't earn an assist on the play, but he worked a beautiful screen on Marty Turco that cleared the way for Alexandre Picard's power-play goal. The Senators got some of that secondary scoring they have lacked, as Antoine Vermette broke his Bruce Garrioch sized slump with a back door goal on the power play and Mike Fisher set up Jason Smith's winner with a pretty pass on the rush. Nick Foligno earned well-deserved First Star honours by playing physically and showing some offensive flair, picking up two assists and making some smart plays with the puck to find open ice and teammates. Coach took notice, granting the former Sudbury Wolf 17:40 in ice time. Finally, stay at home defender Jason Smith got to play the hero, recording his first point as a Senator in style, as he scored the OT winner. Ottawa's supporting cast came up big and success followed.

The game was not without some negatives for the Bytown side. Most obviously, team captain and infallible man-god Daniel Alfredsson was dealt a minor setback on his inexorable journey to becoming the human supreme. Alfredsson was most savagely slammed into the the boards from behind by the now treacherous Jere Lehtinen. Fortunately, when Alfredsson was asked on the Team 1200 post-game show if he thought the injury was serious, he replied with a confident "No." Lehtinen didn't really show malicious intent, but I am somewhat shocked there wasn't at least a boarding minor called. Martin Gerber was horrible, and the first and second goals were downright embarrassing. I'll be shocked if we don't see Alex Auld start in goal next game. The Senators as a team showed poor awareness on the tying goal in the third period. Anton Volchenkov broke his stick on a shot at the Dallas blue line, sparking to a rush and sustained offensive zone possession for the Stars. Volchenkov played for over 30 seconds without a forward offering him a stick. The A-Train did his best to break up Dallas' rush and clear the defensive zone afterwards, but without a stick he was forced to try to clear the puck with his hands. The result of this miscue was a turnover that led to Loui Eriksson's goal. Don Cherry Moment Time: Kids, if you're a forward, always give your defenceman a stick when he loses his (this is the part where I would show two or three examples to prove my point and then call somebody stupid, unaware of the delicious irony of such a statement.)

Overall, the Senators should be happy to get the win. 5-goal games have become a scarce commodity for this team, and a win on a night when Martin Gerber plays poorly even scarcer. Hopefully they can build on this as they stand on the doorstep of their World Junior Championship enduced 8-game road trip. History tells us they will not.

Now for C-Bass tribute.

[In-Depth] Hartsburg's Hard Times

As an avid participant on HFBoards, a recent thread was created on whether or not the Senators should fire Craig Hartsburg.  Here's my take.

To me this thread seems like a "fickle fan" thread started by someone who doesn't truly understand the state of the Senators and why they are losing games.  This is just my opinion on the matter.

To begin with, we must go all the way back to the Cup run.  Ah yes, the Cup run.  Those were good days weren't they?  Well yes and no.  The Senators go on their cup run under the guidance of Brian Murray as head coach.  He did not preach any kind of defensive responsibility and was pretty content to simply outscore the opposition and win games.  Our skill guys were playing at the top of their game and it looked like no one could touch them.  Obviously we lost that year to Anaheim, but the point here is that we did not win the cup, and the system used was a laissez fair approach of the letting the skill guys put pucks in the net.

During the offseason John paddock was hired as head coach for the Ottawa Senators as Brian Murray took the GM position (John Muckler was fired).  John Paddock had previously coached many of the players in Binghamton during the lockout, and seemed like a real "players" coach.  What he turned out to be was a bad fit for the club, letting the locker room turn to shambles whilst not showing enough discipline.  It eventually led to his firing and the move of Brian Murray back to the head coach position.  So that's now two head coaches in two years.  When Brian Murray hired Craig Hartsburg he made him the third head coach in three years for the Senators.

The team is now on coaching style number three and its in stark contrast to the previous two coaches in Ottawa.  Craig's system is a defensive 1-2-2 with neutral zone trapping, back-check pressure by the forwards and defensive accountability.  It's even more defensive than under Jacques Martin.  As with any change, there is an adjustment period that needs to take place and that's what is currently happening.  It is easier to go from a defensive style of play to an offensive one, than the inverse.  This is because the latter requires more hard work, skating and accountability.  Currently the Senators are lacking in the hard work some nights, but starting to transition over.

The other thing working against Craig is the real merry-go-round of coaches in Ottawa lately.  If the players expectations are that a coach won't stick, why would they bother buying into his system?  The longer Craig sticks around, the more the expectations will change and players will begin to either conform, or get shipped out.

All this is to say that it is extremly premature to be calling for the firing of Craig Hartsburg.  The Senators are currently lacking players in certain positions (2 top 6 forwards, 2 top 2 defence) and that is not Craig's fault.  It is also not Craig's fault that the players are taking time to buy into a new system, especially when their expectations are that he probably won't last.  The worst thing the Senators can do right now would be to fire Craig and start the merry-go-round again in Ottawa.  If Craig was the right coach for the team in August, he's the right coach for the team in March.  I also don't buy this business that the team can't become a defensive team.  It just takes hard work and attention to detail.  If the players aren't willing to work hard, they will never get the proper results.

Sens Crossing Over to Dark Side?

I was at the game last night, slumming it in the GM Power seats. If you are beating yourself up for not attending or because you missed it on TV, I assure you such activity is utterly groundless. Granted, I spent some of the game distracted by Sparticat's antics and discussing my all time favourite Zdeno Chara radio moments with former Senate Committee contributor Phil, but I counted five scoring chances for Ottawa to Tampa Bay's three. I have always been of the opinion that chances, not goals, make a hockey game exciting. This match-up had neither. I was almost inclined to follow Rick Tocchet's advice, and request a refund. We did, however, determine that "Two dorks on the radio for three hours? Now THAT'S ridiculous!" was Chara's best work.

Last night's result could suggest water has perhaps been added to the coffee grinds of a potential goaltending controversy (it's a brewin'.) Martin Gerber posted his second win of this increasingly aged season last night, making 24 saves for the team's first shutout. Gerber has now allowed one goal in his last 159 minutes of play, while teammate Alex Auld looked decidedly average in the team's losses to Florida and Washington this week. Auld allowed 9 goals on 74 shots in his two starts this week, good for a 4.50 GAA and .878 save percentage. Gerber was named first star last night, the Ottawa Sun ran an article praising Gerber in today's paper, the Ottawa Citizen suggested that Hartsburg now has a tough choice to make when deciding who starts Tuesday, while fans called the post-game show nominating the much maligned Swiss 'tender for increased duties. And so once again we ask ourselves: Is there a goaltending controversy in Ottawa?

Good lord, I hope not. If there is, it will likely be a creation of an unoccupied Ottawa media.

I was critical of Martin Gerber well before started we publishing. To be fair, Gerber seems like a fine individual. His teammates speak about his work ethic in glowing terms, he is always very professional in the media, and by all accounts he does not sulk or cause a distraction in the dressing room when things do not go his way. All things considered, he seems like a good teammate and a serviceable back-up goaltender, albeit a touch pricey when his $3.7M cap hit is factored in. Having said that, unless he absoloutely implodes, the job should be Alex Auld's to lose. Despite Martin Gerber's strong stats from his week's work, I'm not even convinced he played very well.

I concede Gerber allowed very few goals in the last two games. However, the technical problems that make Gerber a poor NHL goaltender. I watched the tape of the Chicago game I had slept through Wednesday and had a bird's eye view of the Sens' net for 67% of last night's game, and even though he got the shutout, to say Gerber was particularly strong in goal would be a results-driven assessment. The journey through which Gerber arrived at his recent statistical success has been sloppy and erratic.

Don`t get me wrong, I would love to be able to play goal like Martin Gerber can; he just does not exhibit the skill set of a No.1 goalie in this league. For starters, Gerber fights the puck like a scared first-time driver fights the steering wheel. The man never looks comfortable with the biscuit, and it produces awkward rebounds around the Senator goal. This trend appears to be a result of Gerber's lack of confidence and relaxation in goal, as well as poor technique. Run a quick image search on Google and you will find numerous photographs of Marty bobbling high shots. Gerber`s confidence issues also manifest themselves in weak goals in pressure situations, which often deflate the Senator bench and cause the team's defencemen to scramble out of position to cover for Gerber when the game is on the line, resulting in defensive zone breakdowns.

Furthermore, Gerber has a hard time staying in position in his crease. He often loses sight of the puck, leaving himself in the wrong spot, then slides laterally to recover. The problem is he frequently misjudges where he needs to be and over compensates to the short side, leaving shooters the whole far side of the net. This happened three or four times last night by my count. If Tampa Bay`s anemic offense had hit the net on only 25% of those opportunities, the game would have gone to overtime or worse. I am not a goaltending pro, but this problem seems pretty intelligible and glaring to me.

Alex Auld has given this team stability between the pipes, making the saves he is supposed to make in key situations (Ie. that save on Evgeni Malkin late in Ottawa's 3-2 victory over the Penguins.) Two strong results from Gerber in the midst of a congested schedule should not be enough to oust Auld from the team's goaltending throne. Knowing what he got the last time he handed Gerber the starter's job, I can't see how or why Craig Hartsburg would give Gerber the chance to win it back right now. In light of the play of both netminders so far this season, Auld deserves the chance to play himself out of the driver's seat more so than Gerber deserves the chance to play himself in.

Ottawa 2 Tampa Bay 0

The two lowest scoring teams did not disappoint tonight. With only two goals scored, the game was relatively flat. Alexandre Picard scored in the second period off a point shot, and Daniel Alfredsson scored an empty netter to seal the game.

Senate's Notes:

Brian Lee: Played with Chris Phillips on the top pairing tonight. While many fans might only remember his giveaway early in the third period, he played a really solid game. His skating is a breath of fresh air for the Ottawa defense, extremely fluid and above average speed. He even saw some time on the power-play, but did not register any points. He appears to be regaining the poise he demonstrated last year with the Senators (which he was lacking early this year). Craig Hartsburg has stated that he is giving Brian Lee an extended shot with the Senators, so he can definitely play his way onto the team if he keeps up with tonight's effort.

Chris Neil: Invisible throughout the game except on two specific plays. He had an extended fight with Zenon Konopka, which was extremely entertaining, and he drew a penalty with some strong play around the net. Chris Neil's offensive play this season is leaving alot to be desired, but with him contributing in other ways, you can't criticize him too much yet.

Martin Gerber: A Shutout!? for Gerber!? You had better believe it! Although he really didn't have to deal with alot of great scoring chances, Gerber was solid and looked focused. Really can't critisize his game tonight as he was perfect and stopped everything thrown at him. This could be a sign of his confidence returning, or it could just be an anomaly.

Bottom Line: A pretty boring game considering all the elite talent. Both teams are struggling to score consistently and this game was in line with that. A win is a win and Ottawa needs all the can muster.